Debt Free

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's basis for Iran acquiring a nuclear capability is that "No one can deprive a nation of its rights based on its capabilities." Following a similar line of reasoning, the U.S. should deprive Iran of it's nuclear capabilities because we have the capability to do so. This train of thought could be followed to the logical conclusion that we have the right to be free from potential nuclear terror attack, and the elimination of Iran's budding capability would make such an attack less likely. Furthermore, the sooner this operation is carried out, the less likely there is to be massive collateral damage.

Well, it's probably not a great idea to go about salting the Iranian landscape with GBU-28s, cluster bombs, and such when we could use massive diplomatic and economic sanctions to achieve the same ends. Can we really achieve those ends with diplomatic and economic sanctions, however? Without the help of the Chinese and Russians, is it really possible to levy effective sanctions on the Iranians? Chinese – Iran trade breaks records every year. Up from $5 billion in 2003, over $10 billion dollars worth of goods changed hands between Beijing and Tehran in 2005. This, and China's newfound thirst for oil, is a powerful incentive for this relationship to continue unabated. China has continued to oppose economic sanctions on Iran, and we probably can't count on help from the Chinese any time soon.

Russia, on the other hand, while continuing to oppose sanctions against Tehran, has actually experienced a decrease in trade with their neighbors to the south in the past year. They are still an important trading partner to Moscow, and baring blatant aggression on the part of the Iranians, support of sanctions by the Russians is probably not in the cards at this time.

What of U.S. trade with Iran? Are we in a position to withhold anything in the name of economic sanctions? From almost nothing in the mid 1980's (understandably), U.S. exports to Iran grew to over $700 million in 1992. We imported virtually nothing, and thus had a healthy trade surplus. Over the next few years, our exports to Iran nearly stopped completely. We sank to a low of under $10 million in 2001. Some people spend more than that every year on cars and vacations. Our imports, however, slowly grew from almost nothing to the point when, in 2005, the U.S. imported almost $175 million worth of goods from Iran. Very small by world trade standards, but considering the steady growth, it sounds like we are not applying too many sanctions on Iranian export industries ourselves.

Note that during the same time period, Iran decided not to return the favor, and bought virtually nothing from U.S. businesses. So we're applying sanctions by denying U.S. companies the Iranian market, while simultaneously increasing our imports of Iranian goods. If we really wanted to apply a bit of pressure, shouldn't we be refusing to send any money to Iran? Close down all U.S. purchases of Iranian goods. We've bought no oil from Iran since 1991, but there are plenty of other willing takers of Iranian oil. In addition, their exports of non-petro products has been steadily increasing, to the point where last year it hit $12B. So, it seems that not only is our paltry $175 million very small percentage of their economy, we're getting negligible support from the rest of the world on the whole sanctions idea.

It might be concluded that Ahmadinejad is just suffering from a bout of short man's disease. Maybe he's just a nationalistic, religious zealot that would rather Israel be turned into a billiard table of fine Atomsite (with the U.S. not too far behind). He's said as much, and I'm not putting any words into his mouth. Whatever his true motivations, it would be prudent to learn from the past. When dealing with such leaders, cut them no slack. Giving a dictator room didn't work 70 years ago, and didn't work 20 years ago, and it won't work now. We need to increase the pressure, but with the help from the rest of the world community. They've got to stop feigning indignation at the Iranian nuclear ambition while continuing to cultivate stronger trade relationships. You know who you are, Germany ($5.67 billion or 14.4% of exports to Iran), Italy (7.5%) and France (6.2%). Get off your ass and help, or do you remember nothing of the events that happened last time the shit hit the fan? Such short memories. Iran won't stop blustering, exporting terror, and pushing the envelope on it's nuclear problem unless we stop them.