It's The Economy, and You Know It Sucks...Or Does It.
Well, Happy Halloween. Be safe while taking the little goblins and ghouls out trick-or-treating tonight.The prevailing opinion in this country seems to be that the economy is crap. In a CNN/USA Today poll taken last week, 55% of those surveyed felt the economy rated a “fair” or “poor”. In addition, almost as many, 54% think the economy is actually getting worse. Are these amateur economists right? Does the average American know enough about the economy to give a qualified answer? Let's look at the Economy Stupid.
First up, the economic statistic that's probably nearest and dearest to most American's heart; per capita personal disposable income, (in 2000 dollars, to compensate for inflation) is up slightly, from $27,254 in 2004 to $27,986 in Q3 2006 (source - US Department of Economic Indicators). Total employer compensation (wages and benefits) in dollars / hr for certain groups is interesting (source - US Department of Labor):
Q2, 2004 Q2, 2006
Teachers 33.58 35.45
RNs 27.04 29.25
Construction 27.28 29.11
Manufacturing 17.77 19.39
Retail Sales 11.00 11.73
Home ownership has remained constant from Q3 2004 to Q3 2006, at approximately 69.0%. It is, however, up from Q3 2000 (67.7%), and Q3 1996(65.6%). The preceding homeownership data was compiled and reported by the U.S. Census Department. Another home ownership statistic that bears noting, between Q3, 2004, and Q3, 2006 the loan to price ratio of residential mortgages actually dropped from 77.9% to 75%. Americans are needing to borrow less as a percentage of the purchase price of their homes, even as the price of those homes continues to climb, in many markets. In others, the long awaited correction may bring homeownership back into reach of the common man without resorting to some of those, uh, creative mortgages.
How are we paying for all these homes? Are Americans working? The unemployment rate for September, 2006, was 4.6%. That's significantly better than we were experiencing in September of 2004, when unemployment was 5.4%. For all you naysayers out there that are saying “That's because they've been unemployed so long they've stopped looking” I can direct you to the statistic for average weeks unemployed. This statistic is thoughtfully provided by the D.O.L., one of the countless statistics they bring to us (It's really an insane mass of numbers over there). In September of this year, the average unemployed person had been out of work for 17.4 weeks. In the same month of 2004, it was 19.6.
The stock market is in rarefied territory, cresting 12,000 for the first time ever. Lest you think the DOW is the province of only the rich, check your 401k or 403b plan. Chances are it's substantially invested in DOW equities.
How about violent crime? While not economic news, this statistic does help to reflect the quality of life in America today. According to DOJ statistics, the violent crime rate (unless you're unfortunate enough to live in St. Louis or Detroit) has been trending down for years. In 2005, it was .21%, down slightly from .211% in 2004. In 2000, the rate was .274%, down substantially from the .416% in 1996.
So, per capita income is up, home ownership is steady, unemployment is down, those that are unemployed are out of work for less time, and the stock market is at a record high. While everything economic may not be hunk dory, it does show that approximately 55% of the American public don't know what they're talking about when it comes to the general economic situation. Where did they get that idea? So much for an unbiased media.
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The 401k is the de facto replacement for the pension plan. When our fathers were working, not only could they buy a brand, new '65 Goat with a 389 tri-power, there was at least the expectation that their company or union pension plan would fund their retirement. Most workers today are under no such illusions. Enter the 401k plan. The 401k is an example of a defined contribution plan, while traditional corporate pension plans are of the defined benefit variety. According to the Profit Sharing / 401k Council of America, about 440,000 U.S. businesses offer 401k retirement plans to their employees. Chances are good your employer is one of them, and you're a participant.
Sometimes it’s a matter of timing. If you’re deep in debt, take a look back at your credit card statements. See how many purchases you made with your card were within a day or two of payday. Now check how many of those purchases you really needed to make that day. In many cases, what ever you bought could have waited for a day or two. That would have eliminated the necessity to ratchet up you card a bit more. Next time you’re short on cash, mull over whipping out the plastic. That latte could end up costing you more than you bargained for.
Debt Management – The Key to Financial Success
Typically when potential investors evaluate a stock to buy, they look at the usual suspects; stock price history, P/E ratio, total revenue, corporate management, etc. There are however, other places you can look to give you a more complete picture of the company and industry you are examining. You can look to analyst reports, most everyone does, and successful analysts do their homework, so you don't have to. Except that you still do have to.
Your home; for most people it's the largest asset they have. It's also the largest single contributor to their net worth and their largest single debt, especially early in their mortgage. The majority of people use the equity in their existing home as the down payment for their next. You want the ability to extract the maximum amount of that equity when you sell your home. These three mistakes can prevent you from achieving your goal.
More is great if you're talking about money, sex, Ferraris, or football, but not for how much you use when it comes to consumer products. Okay, so the title of this post is slightly misleading, but there is a way you can get a 50%, or even greater discount on many consumer products you use everyday.
Income redistribution, the darling of those on the left, isn't what America needs. America's not about that. As our population crosses the three hundred million mark, we need opportunity redistribution, not income redistribution. We need opportunity for every American, not for everyone who happens to reside within our borders, however they arrived here. This country has been built upon the kind of opportunity available nowhere else in the world. “The streets are paved with gold” used to be the cry from those throughout the world. Consequently, there's been a stream of fresh talent coming to our country since it was founded. That tremendous talent, coupled with an enlightened societal framework, rampant industriousness, and a desire to be Americans, built the great nation we find ourselves in today.
In the previous two posts, I’ve examined some big, corporate CEOs political leanings by taking a look at their recent campaign contributions. Here are some more CEOs from DJIA component companies.
After looking at the recent campaign contributions of several CEO’s of Dow Jones Industrial Average component companies, preliminary data indicated that they were not all the right wing Republicans many would expect. Many CEOs gave substantially to both party’s candidates, but usually more to one side than the other. Most gave at least as much to one or more PACs as well. There were a few mucky mucks that did, in fact favor one party over the other almost exclusively, but they were in the minority. All in all, Republican-leaning CEOs were in the majority, but it wasn’t the landslide we’ve been conditioned to expect with the regard to the political orientation of big business leaders.
As the Dow edges slowly toward the magical 12,000 mark, it makes one wonder. There is a solid likelihood that at least the House will become Democratically controlled after the coming mid-term elections. Are investors not concerned about the Democrats seizing control of the legislative body? Business leaders, especially those of the huge corporations like those that make up the Dow, and other financial heavy hitters, have the reputation of being staunch Republicans. Are they really? We should take a look at some campaign contributions to make sure. After all, they probably put their money where their sentiments lie.
Has Wal-Mart single handedly affected the U.S. economy? Most definitely. As the largest retailer, and the largest employer outside the federal government, the Borg-like retailer has undoubtedly had an effect on our national economy. Have they, for example, had a negative impact on our trade deficit or per capita national income?
168 hours. It's all you get. No matter how far behind you are, or how you badly may need them, 168 is the maximum number of hours you can cram into a week. Come to think of it, it's the minimum number of hours in a week as well. How you use each of the 168 is up to you. In theory, you'll have a healthy balance of work and family, office and fun. Too many people are not only trying to cram more into those 168 hours than is humanly possible, they're failing miserably at it.
You’re bombarded with this message all day, every day. “SAVE BIG MONEY!!” or “SUPER SAVINGS”, usually accompanied with the empty threat that this will never be repeated again in your lifetime. The goal of this mental artillery is to convince you that by spending money, you’re actually saving it. That’s akin to saying that by killing someone, you’re really saving their life.
Of course, everyone wants to retire rich, or at least financially secure, unless you never quite recovered from your stint in that No Cal commune in the ‘60’s. You’ll hear countless methods thrown around that purport to allow just that; a retirement supported by a nice, steady cash flow. There are countless vehicles in which to invest your retirement money. You can invest in residential real estate, commercial real estate, large cap stocks, small cap stocks, bonds, mutual funds (within the mutual fund category, there are countless sub-categories), commodities, commodity funds, REITS, your brother-in-law’s business, your own business; the list is endless.
It's true! Atrocities perpetrated by the Bush Administration are a major contributor to the ballooning federal budget deficit. In particular, I'm referring to the unconscionable practices associated with the feeding of detainees at our Guantanamo Bay facility. By offering the detainees a huge variety of ethnic and traditional dishes, our government, and President Bush in particular, is causing the detainees to balloon to unhealthy proportions. The administration, with full knowledge that the amount of halal meat and other ethnic dietary contributions being set before the prisoners each day exceeds federal caloric guidelines, continues to sanction such practices.
Quote of the day:
There are things we do every day that can cost us a pile of money. I'm not talking about things like buying a new car or taking a cruise to the Bahamas either. These are things that you can avoid that won't really change any aspect of your life.