Debt Free

If you filled up your car on the way to work this morning, you no doubt noticed that gas prices are creeping up faster than the quarterback's hand up a skirt on prom night. This is due to the continued uncertainty in the middle east. You know the markets hate uncertainty. They react by ratcheting prices up, just in case the commodity's (what ever commodity, not just oil) supply is interrupted in the future.

How else has the world reacted? Well, some of the headlines are abominable. “Iran sees positive signs in U.K. Stance” is a headline brought to us by the Associated Press this morning. My question is: “Why is that even a headline?” That's simply more legitimizing the Iranian position by the AP. A better headline might read “British Royal Marines and Sailors Still Held Captive By Iranian Government”. The British are going to have themselves more of a problem if they don't negotiate from a position of strength. Many individuals in that part of the world will respect nothing less. The British are at their end of their rope, both militarily and economically. They can ill afford to get into a protracted struggle with the Iranians. Unless they want the current situation to be but a prelude to a larger conflict in the region, as Iran flexes her muscles and tries to assume a more dominant position.

On one end of the scale, the Brits could pursue further diplomatic solutions. The Iranians, through their own actions, have swung much of world opinion against them. This bodes well for a future diplomatic solution to the current situation. Can Britain and the rest of the world make the diplomatic solution tough enough to deter future actions of this kind, or other abominations by the Iranians? Time will tell. We can all hope fervently that it does. Iran has their sights set on political domination of the region. That's a powerful motivator, and one they seem bent on achieving. As of this morning, the British had toned down their political rhetoric. That would seem to be taking matters in the wrong direction. Showing weakness here, or acquiescing to the Iranian position in any way, will only bolster the Iranian's resolve to dominate the region, and pave the road to future problems with Iran.

What other options does Britain have available? They could blockade Iran's key coastal oil terminal facilities in the region, until their troops are returned safe and unharmed. This would prevent Iran from selling any crude oil or importing any refined oil. Faced with such tough economic measures, Iran may back down. The show of military strength may also boost the respect with which the Iranians and others in the Arab world view the British, helping to prevent future problems.

The problem is that the British Navy is hardly the huge, world class fighting force it once was, capable of projecting British might to all corners of the globe. Currently the Royal Navy has only about 90 commissioned warships. Of the 90 vessels, 16 are mine countermeasure vessels, 18 are fast coastal patrol boats, 4 are nuclear ballistic missile submarines, and 3 more ships are permanently moored as shore or training facilities. Of the 49 remaining ships, some would have to be used for current missions, such as protecting the home islands. Could the British Navy, with the forces remaining, mount an effective Naval blockade? If they used some air power from land bases in Iraq and Afghanistan, maybe so.

Further up the scale, the British could give the Iranians 36 hours to return their troops safe and unharmed, to U.S. or British soil. If the time table expires without the troops return, all Iranian coastal oil facilities would be completely destroyed. This could easily, safely (for the Brits) and relatively inexpensively be accomplished with missles. The 36 hour period would allow the Iranians to remove all non military personnel from the facilities. If the demand was not met to the letter and in its entirety, missiles would be inbound. The British, once making such a threat, would have little choice but to follow through, lest it lose all respect and credibility.

This approach may well work. If it failed in getting these troops returned, the British destruction of the oil facilities would give the British the respect of the Iranians and others in the Arab world. It may well prevent any future problems. See 1981 for what happens when the Iranians fear retaliation. It could also backfire tremendously, however.

The political and diplomatic good will engendered by the British throughout the current situation could well evaporate if they were to use such a dramatic military situation. The rest of the Arab world could begin to give the Brits tremendous problems, to say nothing of the Russians. The Russians have shown themselves to be constantly taking the side of the Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on virtually every matter, save the Iranians actually having nuclear warheads at the ready.

Naturally their are two sides to every argument. The question is weather the British are correct, or is it the Iranians? What the Iranians are doing is trying to stage a power play in an attempt to prove they are ready to be the dominant force in the Arab world. Take a look at the gas station outside your window. The situation's not resolved yet.