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October 31, 2007

- Hire a Lawyer for Your Real Estate Transactions – or Pay the Price

jack o lantern.jpgWhen engaging in real estate (and other large, comlex) transactions, too many people feel that they really don’t need a lawyer. They might have their real estate agent look over the documents, and they might possibly use a stock, one-size-fits-all contract. You know, one of those fill in the blank, downloadable contracts you can find on the web. You will save a few bucks on the front end of the deal, there’s no question about it.

You can try to console yourself with all the money you saved by not hiring a lawyer to draw up or examine your contract while you’re grieving aver how you got taken to the cleaners. You may think you can just take this stuff lightly, and far too many people do, despite the advice of experts. However, failure to take this simple precaution can be fraught with peril. I have a neighbor who is selling their home and an adjoining vacant lot. They had listed their home and the lot as a package deal, with the lot at a $20,000 discount over its price if purchased separately.

A prospective buyer made an offer on both, but subsequently had their financing on the home denied. The financing on the lot however, was approved. The way the two properties were listed, and the way the contract was written, the purchaser was able to purchase the property for the discounted price, although they didn’t buy the home along with the lot. Needless to say (although I will anyway) my neighbor is a bit miffed over the whole situation, being out $20,000.

Paying a lawyer a few hundred or a thousand dollars to draw up the contract could have avoided this unfortunate situation, and my neighbor would have an extra $19,000 in the bank today because of it. Think about it the next time you’re tempted to bypass the important step of having your real estate lawyer examine a contract when you’re a buyer, or draw up a contract if you’re the seller. The money you save will be your own.

There’s nothing wrong with using a stock form for some things, or having one of those discount, on-line legal form services create your documents for you. They work well, and can save you substantial money for certain things. Real estate transactions are not one of them however. For that, you need the real thing. There’s nothing like witnessing something like that up close to drive the point home. If you do need a lawyer, here's a free service that is much better than just guessing your way through the yellow pages. Attorney Referrals

Have a great Halloween. If you’re taking your little ones out and about to get their haul tonight, be careful.

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October 30, 2007

- What Happens When Companies Will No Longer Accept Cash?

Cash Machine.jpgApple, in an apparent bid to deny product shortages and hacking for the holidays, said yesterday that they'd not allow more than 2 iPhone sales per customer. More interesting is that they will not be allowing customers to use greenbacks to make their iPhone purchases, only credit cards. One assumes that a debit card with a credit card logo may be used as well. It brings up an interesting point. Are we on our way to the all cash society that so many have suspected?

There are already many things that you can't buy with actual cash, and I'm sure that Uncle Sam would love to rid themselves of the hassle and expense of printing money. Of course we'd get no kind of tax relief even if they were saving money, they'd just find somewhere else to spend it, I'm sure. Many government officials would love to rid the world of cash for the law enforcement benefits it would provide. It would be much harder to launder money (but the really large Criminal enterprises would still do it), make illegal drug and weapons transactions, not report income for tax purposes, and so on. And you can just forget about that extra $50 your wife doesn't know about...

Many banks would love to only make electronic transactions and take their little electronic cut from each. That would streamline their operations, minimize their labor costs, allow smaller branch offices, and reduce product (money) handling and distribution expenses. The cash machine wouldn't be, a cash machine, that is. When visiting the bank, you'd just bring in your pay check, if you don't have electronic deposit, and they'd fill your debit card, just as they do now. There would be no option for getting cash back.

The reality is that most companies will never want to get rid of cash unless they have no choice. Businesses, Apple and a few other companies (Macy's) notwithstanding, will want to maximize their payment options in order to maximize revenue. The exception to this is when it costs more to make the transaction than the incremental revenue the added transaction generates for the business. In most cases, maximizing payment options will allow the business to appeal to the widest range of customers, and thus generate the maximum amount of total revenue. So, if it's only up to the business community, don't count on cash going away any time soon, unless cash transactions are rendered prohibitively expensive. If that day ever comes, look out, dodos will be using cash to line their nests.

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October 29, 2007

- How Federal Taxes Affect Your Retirement Accounts

IRS headquarters building.jpgWith luck you're going to retire one day. With careful planning you're going to retire with substantial amounts of money in your retirement accounts. One of the things that will impact the ultimate success of those retirement accounts is how taxes will affect them. They can take a substantial chunk out of your nest egg, or a much smaller nibble, it's all up to how you, and your tax adviser choose to allocate your resources.

From a tax perspective, there are three broad classes of retirement vehicles; taxable, tax deferred, and tax exempt. Why wouldn't you just stick to tax exempt vehicles and avoid the whole tax issue altogether? Well, you could, and some have, but that limits your choice, and your probable investment return, in the name of federal tax savings. Vehicles such as tax exempt municipal bonds (munis) can offer an attractive option for investors, but typically the level attractiveness rises with the investor's tax bracket. Investors in higher tax brackets will avoid comparatively higher levels of taxation than lower income investors. For these investors, the avoidance of federal taxes may swing the pendulum more in favor of tax exempt investments. In many cases though, tax exempt investments offer substantially lower yield than other choices, and the reduced yield is not sufficiently compensated for by their exempt status.

Many more retirement accounts consist of tax deferred retirement instruments. These include traditional IRAs, 401(k) plans, 403(b) plans (403b plans are for public employees and non-profit private organizations), and Roth IRAs. There are tax differences between these three. The Roth IRA is taxed when the money is earned, but not when it is withdrawn, assuming you withdraw the funds after you turn 59-1/2 years of age. Prior to that age, you'll incur the wrath of the IRS in the form of a 10% penalty, in addition to any taxes you may owe.

Traditional IRAs and 401(k)s are similar in that they use pretax income to fund the plan, and then the retiree / investor is taxed when the money is withdrawn. If you are in lower tax bracket after retirement it is most advantageous to use a traditional IRA. Most people are in lower tax bracket after they retire, because the years immediately preceding retirement are usually the peak earning years. Most people will find that their situation warrants using a Roth IRA plan at the beginning, especially for the first 20 years or so of their contributions, when they are in comparatively lower tax bracket. If your federal income tax rate is the same at contribution and withdrawal, it does not matter when you are taxed. The results will be the same if pay taxes before you contribute, or when you withdraw. If you don't believe me, consider the following:
Traditional: Your 1st year $7,500 pretax contribution, invested for 40 years at 8% yield = grows to $162,934. You pay taxes at your income tax rate, as dictated by your taxable income. If you are in the 28% tax bracket (for 2007 = 28% on marginal income between $64,250 - $97,925) and we assume your actual tax rate works out to 22%, you'll lose $36,505 in income taxes on this portion of your distribution, bringing your after-tax distribution amount to $127,088.

Make the same assumptions for a Roth plan and you'll get the following:
$7500 – 22% taxes paid before contribution = $5,850 net contribution. $5,850 invested for 40 years at 8% = $127,088. See, I told you so. When it gets murky is when your tax rates are not the same, as is usually the case as your life progresses. You'll want to see a very competent tax and retirement adviser to assist you with your retirement planning so you can maximize your retirement assets and minimize your tax consequences.

NOTE: If you control how much money you take as distributions you can control not only your income tax, but have a very significant effect on how much taxes you on your social security benefits as well.

Which of these is best for you depends upon your specific situation.401(k) plans are company sponsored, while IRAs are private. The big advantages of a 401(k) is that the funding is automatic and comes right out of your paycheck. This can be a huge advantage for discipline challenged savers. The biggest advantage from an investment perspective is that many companies offer to match all, or portion of the employee's contribution. The power of this almost cannot be underestimated. It's really quite powerful, and can contribute substantially to a comfortable retirement. A traditional IRA is similar to a 401(k) for most practical purposes, except that the investor self funds the account and their employer has nothing to do with it.

Traditional IRAs and company sponsored retirement plans have another age requirement. You must begin to take minimum withdrawals (distributions) when you reach 70-1/2 years of age. Roth plans do not have this age restriction, so if you plan on bequeathing one of these to someone, this may be the way to go, as it can sit there, growing, after you're deceased. When the lucky recipient does begin withdrawing the money when the so desire, and pay income taxes on it with no additional penalties.

Traditional and on-line brokerage accounts are examples of non-tax deferred investment accounts. There also are some automatic pans such as Dividend ReInvestment Plans (DRIPs) where the dividends form a company's stock are automatically reinvested in purchasing more stock. With a DRIP, you will pay income tax on the dividends you receive in the year they are received, even if they are immediately reinvested. That is something to keep in mind when considering dividend paying investments that aren't tax deferred.

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October 28, 2007

- How to Save Money on Car Insurance

Boss 429s.JPGCar insurance is possibly one of the largest bills you have to pay, after housing, food, and the paying for the car itself. What you pay for car insurance is determined by many things, and thankfully most of them are within your control. There are the usual suspects, such as the type of car you drive. Teams of actuaries at the insurance providers have determined that your Porsche 997 turbo should be much more expensive to insure than your wife’s 2004 Corolla, and both will cost more if you live in New York City, than if you live in Billings.

So, short of moving and trading in your prized sports car in for a family econo-box, what can you do to save money on car insurance? There are some things that go for almost any kind of insurance, be it car, home, boat or anything else. Then there are some savings tips that are more specific to car insurance.

General ways to same money on car insurance –
Keep your deductibles as high as you can stomach. After all you’re not going to turn in a claim unless it’s probably over $1,000 anyway, so keep your deductibles for your different coverages at $1,000 or higher if you have a policy that allows it. If not, well, see section 2. You’re not going to turn in a claim for less than $1,000 because that is another strategy for saving money on car insurance; don’t use it unless you absolutely have to. It’s pretty common knowledge that most insurance companies use a claim as an excuse to raise your rates, so don’t make one.

Way to Save Money on Your Car Insurance -1
Review your coverage to make sure you’re not paying for anything you shouldn’t be. I’ve seen people pay premiums for months on cars they had already sold, for example. Then evaluate the level of coverage you have in each area. Some may be lowered or eliminated entirely. For example, do you really need collision insurance on that ’85 Dodge Colt? Probably not. It will end up costing you more for the insurance than the car’s worth, so if it gets hit in the parking lot (or you hit something), the loss will probably exceed the value of the car. The company will declare it a total loss (where the term “totaled” originates). You’ll collect a check for the retail value of the car, in most cases. Since, on the car in question, that’s about $900, you can see how paying $45 a month for collision insurance would be a bad deal.

Way to Save Money on Your Car Insurance -2
There are some other things that insurance companies look at to determine how much you’ll pay for their services, fair or not. One such item is your credit score. The insurance providers have determined that there is a link between your credit rating and the risk you present as one of their insured. As such, as your credit score falls, the price of your car insurance rises. So, not only will you save money on a mortgage, auto loan and credit card by keeping your credit score high, you’ll save on your car insurance as well.

Way to Save Money on Your Car Insurance -3
Bundle your insurances together and you’ll likely get a muti-policy discount. If you have your homeowners, auto, life and business insurance with the same provider, they typically reward you with a bit of savings on all your policies. The exact amount you’ll save is influenced by too many factors to count. You’ll also save money if you insure more than one car with the same provider. I’m not advocating you rush down to Bill’s Bargains on Wheels and drive off in another car so you can save money on insurance, but if you have multiple vehicles in your family, insure them all at the same place.

Way to Save Money on Your Car Insurance -4
There are many lifestyle choices you can make that will impact your insurance. Weather you buy your home or rent, married or single, your highest level of education, your job (or lack thereof) and if you have kids can all influence how much you’ll have to pay for car insurance. Some companies offer discounts for how you pay as well. If you have your payment automatically deducted every year, you’ll pay less than if you send a check every month, for example.

Way to Save Money on Your Car Insurance -5
Get your discounts. All should, but many people don’t. Get their insurance discounts, that is. It’s possible that you could qualify for one or more discounts and not even know it. Discounts are offered for many different reasons. There are policy discounts for professional association memberships, senior citizens, multi-car (as mentioned above), club membership discounts (car clubs, travel clubs, AAA, and other clubs will offer discounts as benefits to their members).

Way to Save Money on Your Insurance -6
Properly equip your vehicle and you can earn lower insurance rates as well. Get the important safety features, such as extra air bags, stability control, amiable headlights, etc. and some companies will reward you for your interest in safety by giving you a cheaper rate on your insurance. 

Way to Save Money on Your Insurance -7
Compare rates from different auto insurance providers. You can make phone calls or spend a few hours on the web doing this, but why? It's easier to go to someone who will do all the tedious leg work for you. InsureMe.com has been around since 1993 and they have helped millions find low cost insurance by comparing rates. See how much you can lower your auto insurance rates by comparing rates here.

 

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October 25, 2007

- Was Facebooks Valuation Too High?

Just a word about company valuations, and the amount paid my Microsoft yesterday for a small, 1.6% share of web 2.0 pioneer Facebook; $240 MILLION?? That sets the valuation of Facebook at an astounding $15 billion. As a way of comparison, that sets the value of Facebook higher than the market cap of the following Fortune 1000 companies: Weyerhaeuser ($14.89B), Heinz ($14.8B), Marriot ($14.73B), CIGNA ($14.4B), Safeway ($13.89B), Campbell Soup ($13.7B), and Macy’s ($13.66B). Now, I am unsure how the rest of the world feels, but that seems a bit high to me by way of comparison. Microsoft’s (NASDAQ: MSFT)market this morning was a little over $292B, with an EBITDA last year of over $20B.

Looking at Facebook's 50 million registered users, many analysts and investors apparently disagreed with me, as MSFT rose on the news of the acquisition. Microsoft has been looking to more effectively gain market share and monitize Google's cash cow, the online advertising market. It seems that  investors are looking at this as just the way for Redmond to make that happen. Most analysts conotinued to maintain positive outlooks for the software giant's stock.

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October 24, 2007

- Credit Card Practices to Watch Out For

credit card pile.jpgIf you are one of the majority of Americans (and citizens of just about any other industrialized country) who has and uses credit cards on a regular basis, there are some things that your card issuer does that you should know about. They could be costing you serious money every year. With competition for credit card customers so fierce these days, you have little excuse for not getting the best credit card deals you can find, and leaving the less favorable cards in the waste basket (properly shredded, of course).

Credit Card Practice to Watch For #1
Foreign exchange fees – These fees are charged any time you purchase something on your card from another country. The exception to this is Capital One, who currently does not charge it’s customers a currency conversion fee. The conversion fee averages a little less than 3%, so they can add up in a hurry. Weather you’re traveling or ordering something online from a company whose e-commerce website is set up outside the U.S., or wherever your credit card account is based, these fees will be added to your purchases. The bank charges you a fee for currency conversion, and you pay handsomely for the service. If your account is U.S. based, the fee is based on the U.S. dollar value of the purchase, after conversion.

To avoid this you can use your card as little as possible when traveling overseas. Exchange your currency at your bank and use traveler’s checks. For some travelers, the fee is worth the added convenience and protection offered by using their credit card. If you are one of these consumers, you should be aware that you are paying for the privilege.
 

Credit Card Practice to Watch For #2
High priced credit card insurance and monitoring – With the high instance of large credit card balances, credit fraud, and identity theft a large market has been created for customers that are looking to protect their good names, and more importantly, bank accounts. This has given rise to a huge number of products offered by credit card issuers to guard against loss in the event of credit card fraud, ID theft or the card holders inability to pay their credit card bill due to some unexpected problem, like stepping in front of the #17. The operator from your credit card company can be pretty persuasive on the phone when they are seeking your enrollment in one of their credit protection services, so hold your ground and at least make sure that the one they are offering is the best choice for the job.

While these services can have undeniable value, they can also be fairly expensive, especially if the benefits are limited to the issuing company’s products. Many credit card companies charge between $7.00 and 10.00 a month, or a percentage of your outstanding balance for the service. There are a variety of independent services available that guard against such losses, but are effective for all a consumer’s credit products. Look into one of these if you are of a mind to secure some protection.

 

Credit Card Practice to Watch For #3
Changing interest rates – many times a credit card issuer will change the rate their customers pay on their cards, and do so with no warning, explanation or special indication. They’re sure as hell not going to send you a letter calling your attention to their little profit increasing tactic. In fact, many consumers, typically not as vigilant in these matters as they should be, will fail to notice for months, if at all. This is a practice you need to watch for.

Look at the interest rate for both purchases and cash advances (don’t get one of these from your credit card company, unless you need it for life saving surgery) on every statement. If you see the rate rise for no apparent reason, you need to call their customer service department and find the reason for it ASAP. In many cases you can get them to reverse it, and maybe even get the rate reduced to lower than it was before. In order to make this happen, you obviously must have had no late payments and be in good standing on your account.

Credit card companies are a business and are looking to maximize their profit. With the increasing number of people in credit distress, they are looking to make money from those that do pay every month in order to maximize their revenue. If you’re one of those that pay, make sure you’re only paying your fair share.

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October 23, 2007

What is The Pinchot Plan and Is it a Good Investment?

pinchot gifford.jpgMany of you may have heard of the Pinchot Plan. Then again, many of you may not have any idea what I’m talking about. Like many other investment ideas floating round on the Internet these days, it’s someone’s catchy name for a class of investments. This particular group of investments has been deemed the “Pinchot Plan” Did the former head (actually the first) chief of the U.S. Forest Service, Gifford Pinchot, have anything to do with setting these investments up? Not really anything at all. In fact, Pinchot’s been dead since 1946. He does have a national forest named after him in Washington State, however. That’s important for one reason only in the context of this group of investments.

One of the clues to their identity was that the investment entities are exempt from paying federal income taxes, according to Title 26, sections 856 – 860 of the Internal Revenue Code. This IRS code section states that certain business entities can pay zero corporate income taxes. That’s right, zero, nada, zip! None of their income is considered taxable for the purposes of federal income taxes. Here’re a few quotes from the federal tax code, section 856 that gives a big clue about what these investments actually are, and one of the reasons they can be so favorable:

“For purposes of this title, the term ``real estate investment

trust'' means a corporation, trust, or association--

        (1) which is managed by one or more trustees or directors;

        (2) the beneficial ownership of which is evidenced by

    transferable shares, or by transferable certificates of beneficial

    interest;

        (3) which (but for the provisions of this part) would be taxable

    as a domestic corporation;

        (4) which is neither (A) a financial institution referred to in

    section 582(c)(2), nor (B) an insurance company to which subchapter

    L applies;

        (5) the beneficial ownership of which is held by 100 or more

    persons;

        (6) subject to the provisions of subsection (k), which is not

    closely held (as determined under subsection (h)); and

        (7) which meets the requirements of subsection (c).”

So, that pretty much indicates that we’re talking about REIT’s, since that portion of the tax code deals exclusively with them. There are many flavors of REITs, however. The Pinchot Plan deals with those that are concerned primarily with land management, development, use, and raw materials extraction.

According to one of the websites / emails that purports to have the “inside information” on this investment plan, there are 6 companies. One of which they almost mention by name. Because the company referenced is called “Plum Creek” and there is a Plum Creek Timber Company based in Seattle, a REIT that happens to be the nation’s largest private landowner, I think it’s a pretty safe assumption that the email refers to them as one of the 6 companies.

As for the other 5 companies, a web search on some of the information contained in the email brings up Rayonier Inc, a REIT since Jan 1, 2004. This company derives much of its revenue from auctioning its timber reserves located in Alabama, Washington, New Zealand, Florida and Georgia. It gained almost a million acres when it acquired Jefferson Smurfit Corp in 1999, making it the 8th largest landowner in the U.S.

One of the others on the list looks to be the Potlatch Corp, located in Spokane, WA. They have, as the email suggests, over 1.5 million acres of land. Their most recent acquisition was 179,000 acres of central Idaho timberland they bought last month for $215 million. Recently they converted into a REIT. The fact is that the conversion allowed them to pay shareholders the one-time $15.15 per share dividend the email refers to. One aspect of the Potlatch REIT is its emphasis on recreational properties. Once leaders in timber products production, such as lumber and OSB (oriented strand board), used heavily in home building, they have shifted their emphasis to a more development oriented business strategy.

According to CEO Mike Covey, Potlatch will no longer consider land acquisitions that have no recreational component. They may have made this decision at just the right time, as new home starts, one of the primary uses of lumber and OSB, face a big decline. Potlatch began divesting itself of manufacturing assets a few years before its REIT conversion, and did so quite profitably. In 2004 they sold their OSB plant in Minnesota for a whopping $457.5 million, and netted a healthy profit. They still operate 13 manufacturing facilities, though.

 

Number three on the Pinchot email list is probably Longview Fiber (NYSE: LFB), a timber producer in, appropriately enough, Longview, WA. I’m more familiar with this company, because some of my wife’s high school friends work there. Actually, living much of my life in the Pacific Northwest, I’m more than a little familiar with most of the companies that the Pinchot email refers to. Longview was actually sold earlier this year to Canadian firm Brookfield Asset Management, the Borg of asset management companies with assets worth over 75 billion USD (and growing fast).

 

Most of the information in the email is sufficient to discern the true identity of the companies in question, thanks to the wonders of the Internet and the modern search engine. If you have a few spare hours, you can figure almost anything out on your own these days. The problem is, who has a few spare hours these days?

 

How have these REITs fared recently? Looking strictly at stock price, Potlatch closed today at $43.02, up about 15% since the beginning of last year. Since it was turned into a REIT at the beginning of 2004, Rayonier (RYN) has steadily gained, going from $27.50 to its latest close of $44.03. That’s a 37% gain in the past 3 years and 9 months. The other REIT I looked into as part of the Pinchot Plan research, Plum Creek Timber has gained just shy of 35% in total since its REIT conversion in July of 1999.

So from a purely stock appreciation, none of them has lost any value, and  most have gained enough to make them worthwhile. Their real value, however isn’t from a stock price perspective. They pay huge dividends. You know how I feel about those. It’s pretty much all good. If you get good, consistent dividends over the long term, you almost don’t need stock price appreciation. Oh, it sure doesn’t hurt, but you can make impressive gains without them, if your dividends are solid and reinvested.

Did these companies pay dividends, as the email suggested they were required to? Rayonier paid out $129 million and $144 million in dividends in 2005 and 2006 respectively. They had a forward annual dividend rate this year of 2.00 and a 5yr average dividend yield of 3.80%. Plum Creek Timber’s rate was lower, at 1.68, but they had a higher 5yr yield of 4.60%. Potlatch returned an identical 4.6% yield and a forward dividend rate of 1.96.

 

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October 19, 2007

- The Race to Zero

42in Sharp LCD television.jpgThere’s a race going on. It’s been termed by industry analysts as the “Race to Zero”. What it refers to is the headlong attempt by consumer electronics manufacturers to cut each other’s throats by cutting prices to the point where margins evaporate. As they do this, consumers become jaded to the point where their concept of value almost disappears. As feature sets get larger, and performance becomes greater in a wide variety of consumer electronics, consumers have come to expect they’ll also receive more for their dollar (or Yen, Yuan, Peso, Euro, Ruble) every year.

Almost nowhere else in the marketplace does the race to zero paradox exist. Sure, our cars and homes have far greater content than they did 15 years ago, but they are commensurately more expensive. Consumer electronics, on the other hand, offer consumers more of everything; screen size, performance, features, and functionality, at prices that have been lowered to the point where products are experiencing price compression. Soon consumers will make their choices more on application than price, because the incremental cost of changing in sizes or adding features will be comparatively small.

If you were to shop for a home, and the incremental cost of adding 1,000 square feet was only $10,000, and the larger home cost little more to operate, many consumers would reside in 10,000 square foot McMansions. So it is with consumer electronics. This holiday shopping season, consumers will be treated to an embarrassment of riches and one they have come to expect. As manufacturers and retailers destroy the value proposition of their goods, they will have only themselves to blame when it becomes difficult to make a profit.

Consumers have come to expect lower prices every few months, and they expect innovation to continue unabated. Consumer electronics manufacturers are therefore forced to spend huge sums on R&D. On the flip side, many of the products are now so good that if new technologies and functionality were not developed, manufacturers would find themselves hard pressed to sell replacement products to existing customers. Few outside the enthusiast niche would see the need to upgrade.

The great thing for consumers is that the increased hardware capability has opened the doors for a flood of new applications. I attended a talk by futurist Ray Kurzwiel a few years ago, and he predicted the pace of change would actually accelerate in a geometric fashion, spurred on by the power of innovation to facilitate additional innovation. We’re witnessing such a period now.

A 42” flat screen HDTV that you can hang on your wall for less than a month’s rent is only the beginning. (Rent will rise, TV prices will fall) Soon the size of the TV will be limited more by the size of your wall than the size of your budget. We’re seeing that now to an extent, as equal quality sets in the 37” – 50” range are within a $1,000 of each other. New technologies will render current ones passé and the cycle will begin anew, albeit at a lower price point. This holiday season should be a great one to fortify your entertainment, navigation, or information system. Then again, if you wait a few years, maybe you’ll be able to have all that, and more, for half the price. If you play that waiting game in this market, you’ll be waiting forever.

Have a great, Debt Free, weekend.

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October 18, 2007

- Other Bloggers - Page Scrapers Becoming Too Great of a Problem?

Evidently you can make big money with page scraping blogs. I knew that they were big business, and have a few that regularly scrape my content. I was unaware how many are actually doing so until my post last night about how your business can make money from marketing waste products, or refining its marketing strategy to allow profit from heretofore unprofitable parts of the business.
 
Wow! There must have been some profitable keywords in there, such as “make money”, or maybe the Chinese scrapers are just working overtime. I had over 40 new links on Technorati this morning from blogs with no or 1 authority and upon checking, found that they just republished all or a large portion of my original post on my Debt Free blog. At least they're giving a link back to Debt Free. It makes you wonder how many are not? Original content? Why not just scrape some off the blogosphere? Will bloggers have to turn off their feeds?

Have a great, Debt Free morning. Actual post to follow.

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- How Your Business Can Make Money From Nothing

money savings.jpgEvery business, even non-profit organizations, wants to make money. For many, it’s no easy proposition. Competition is cutthroat and margins are skinny, yet many businesses have an overlooked profit center somewhere in their organization that can generate substantial revenue. In many cases it can turn a loser into a cash cow, or push a marginal line of business into a solid revenue generator. The best thing is that the capability to do this is often no more than a good idea away.

The problem is that, in many businesses the organization gets caught up in the existing way of doing things, and that status quo ends up robbing them of the success they should be enjoying. Weather that means they’re just not generating the profit they should be, or the business is foundering on the edge of insolvency, the overlooked profit capability in your business is often easy to tap into with just a few minor changes.

Here are some examples-

Make Money Example 1-
Apple growers in Washington State are turning former waste products into revenue generating crops with minor marketing changes. In the past, premium apples with minor flaws, such as cracks, were sold as scrap for juice or applesauce. For such uses, apples fetch less than 10 cents a pound. Not a huge help for a grower that must support a large and complex operation.

Now, however, some have found a way to increase the revenue generated by these former waste products by 1,000%! The secret is in changing the marketing strategy so that the apples can be sold not as waste, but as pre-sliced, packaged fruit. When pre-sliced the flaws are unnoticeable, and now the growers are getting around $1.00 a pound instead of a dime. It could be the difference between winning and losing in the apple business.

Make Money Example 2-
A consultant friend of mine once turned around a business that was losing about $1 million per month in one of its divisions. Needless to say, the burn rate was putting a serious crimp in the business’s operation. By investigating new markets for the company’s products, he was able to recommend minor changes in the company’s product mix that would allow them to utilize their existing raw materials, plant, and equipment to produce a premium, specialty product mix that turned out to be a big hit with the company’s customers. They had a higher price and provided greater incremental revenue for the company.

The combination of higher prices and greater margin created a huge turnaround for the company, which went from a division losing a million dollars a month, to one that was highly profitable. To make a good thing even better, the new product mix opened up additional markets for the company. The diversification in its customer base helped it ride out subsequent economic problems that adversely affected the industry.

Make Money Example 3-
Specialize in profitable products, leave the others behind. Financial consultant Stephen J. Kerr, of Business Marketing Consulting, counsels publishers he works with to shift their marketing emphasis to specialty products and shy away from mass market outlets. In this way he gets his clients to more effectively seek out targeted prospects for their books and other publications, while not wasting marketing resources on less productive efforts. By revising marketing strategies in this way, he sees publishers go from money losers to earning up to 10 - 30%.

So, the bottom line is you can turn a money losing part of your business into money maker. You just have to be a bit creative with your marketing.

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October 17, 2007

- The 4 Most Important Things When Retirement Planning for Those Under 30

retired golfer.jpgKathleen Casey-Kirschling. Remember that name. Yesterday morning she officially became the first baby boomer to file for Social Security. She is just the beginning of the swelling number of Social Security beneficiaries that will be created by the retiring boomers. The problem is that they’ll rapidly exceed the ability of the Social Security system to support them, or anyone unfortunate enough to retire after them. Since it looks like the chances of Congress ever actually fixing Social Security to the point where it may live long enough to actually benefit the Gen Xers coming next, and company pensions have disappeared like so many cans of Coke from a Microsoft company refrigerator, retirement planning should become a key part of everyone’s agenda (if it wasn’t already).

Even if Social Security were going to be just fine, it merely provides an anti-destitution safety net. It doesn’t provide adequate income for a comfortable retirement. That’s up to you. Here are the three most important things you can do to make sure you live in the style to which you’ve become accustomed.

Number 1 Most Important Thing When Retirement Planning for Those Under 30 - Start Now

That is by far the most important thing the average person can do to help make sure they don’t live in a Maytag box down on 2nd when they get older. Due to the extremely powerful effects of compounding, the length of time you let you money grow will do more than almost anything else to determine the size of your retirement accounts. The rate at which you’ll have to save for a secure retirement will double if you put off starting you saving from age 25 to age 40. That’s a lot of money every month, so think twice before avoiding those deductions.

Number 2 Most Important Thing When Retirement Planning for Those Under 30 – Readjust your perceptions.
A million dollars isn’t what it once was and by the time anyone who’s now under 30 reaches 65 – 70 years of age, it may only be enough to buy a new Honda Accord and a tank of hydrogen. I heard a radio survey a few months ago where they asked some 21 year old about retirement. She actually said “A million dollars? Why do I need that much?” Obviously the effects of inflation were lost on her. She may not have taken into account.

To see how much you’ll need for a comfortable retirement, you’ll want to take into account that money will have lost much of its current purchasing power in 40 years. That $1,000,000 in 40 years, if inflation averages 6%, will be the same as about $97,222 today. I don’t think too many of you would feel safe retiring with only $97,000 stashed away.  If inflation does average 6% (A bit high by current standards, but better safe than sorry. You never know, we could get another president like Jimmy Carter, then all bets are off), you’ll need far more than you do now to adequately fund your retirement. For example, let’s say you want to retain 80% of your pre-retirement income, you’re now 25 and grossing $42,000/ year, you assume an average 5% raise every year, and you plan on retiring when you’re 65. This assumes you never get that big promotion, start a successful business, or otherwise dramatically increase your income. How much would you need to have in your retirement accounts to make that happen?

If your retired today, and wanted that 80% of your income (which would have grown from $42,000 to about $89,000 assuming your annual raises), you’d have to earn about $71,000 a year from your retirement funds and Social Security (fat chance). Said funds would have to have grown to $785,000 in today’s dollars. Now, if you project that forward 40 years, to earn the equivalent of that $71,000, you’ll need about $232,000 a year. To get your $232,000, your nest egg will need to be the equivalent of today’s $785,000, which will be $2,561,000. So, you can see that a mere million dollars will not cut it.

Number 3 Most Important Thing When Retirement Planning for Those Under 30 – Make it automatic. There are two reasons to make regular deposits into your retirement accounts automatic. The first is financial, the second, psychological. Financially, you need to make regular contributions because it’s hard enough to save an adequate amount to fund your retirement accounts even when contributions are automatic.

Psychologically you must do this because it weans you from dependence on that portion of your income, and engenders confidence as you see your retirement account regularly growing larger. If the contributions are not automatic, it’s all too easy to divert a payment or three every year as other financial diversions occur. It goes without saying that you should take advantage of every cent of your employers matching contribution if they offer matching. It is, after all, free money! By making regular, automatic contributions, you’ll also enjoy the benefits of dollar cost averaging that will add to the power of your savings.

Number 4 Most Important Thing When Retirement Planning for Those Under 30 – As I’ve said regarding other financial and business endeavors, you’ve got to have a plan. You should have a plan for retirement as well. (That’s why they call it retirement planning) You’ll probably make deviations to it as financial and family conditions change, but at least you’ll have a roadmap of where you are starting and where you want to be at the end of your journey. If you must adjust your route along the way, so be it.

When you do your year end financial review, take a look at your plan and reevaluate it. Are you still on track to meet your goals? Are they still the same? Maybe you’d like to retire earlier or live better in retirement? Perhaps you’ve decided that material things aren’t all they’re cracked up to be and you can, in fact retire with much less.

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October 16, 2007

- How to Find Good Credit Card Deals

credit card fan.jpgOne of the things that's imperative if you're going to get debt free is that you stay away from credit cards with high interest rates and fees. That being said, in this day and age you'll have a tough time trying to live completely sans credit card. They are required for so many things from car rentals and airline tickets to on line purchasing of, well, just name it. A few years ago there was an an experiment where someone lived in a home completely cut off from all outside sources of anything, and lived entirely on what they could order on line. At that time their selections, while not too limited, at time left something to be desired. These days, you would have better selection on line than in any city in the world, including New York, London or Moscow. Not, however, without a credit card.

So how can you ensure you get the best deal on a credit card without getting stung by unfavorable terms? There are some things you need to do to make sure this happens.

1 Way to Get Good Deals on Credit Cards – Look past the teaser rate on the offer sheet. Often the junk mail you receive is emblazoned with low, but very temporary teaser rates. After the introductory period expires, you'll get stuck with the real rate, often very much higher.

2 Way to Get Good Deals on Credit Cards – Read everything so you can avoid paying excessive (any) fees. The next most popular way for the credit card companies to get your money is by attaching fees to the agreement. You need to shop around for low, or preferably no fee offers. If you do the math and look at the fee as an extension of the interest rate, you'll be amazed at how much worse that makes your card. The less you spend on your card, the worse fees are as a percentage of what you've spent, hence they increase the apparent interest rate you're paying. For example, if your card has a $50 annual fee, and you charge $1,000 a year on it, the fee effectively added 5% to your interest rate. So now that 9% card is a 14% card.

3 Way to Get Good Deals on Credit Cards - Look at the grace period. That's where you can really get hurt. If you have a short grace period and you pay by regular mail, you can get stung badly if your check gets delayed or returned. The extra day or so may be all the lender needs to not only charge you a fee, but raise your interest rate. Once they've jacked up your rate, it'll be at least 6 months before you can negotiate it back down in most cases. In addition, if you don't ask them to lower it, they'll leave the rate high forever. Look for at least 25 days after you made any purchase. Something else to watch for is the length of time between the bill arrives at your house until it's due. In some cases you'll ahve only days to mail the check, so if you do your bills once a week or 10 days, you may miss the cutoff date.

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October 15, 2007

- John Dingell – Little Man, Big Problems (for Your Wallet)

US capitol.jpgRep. John Dingell (D-MI) has unveiled his latest strategy to suck money from your wallet (and mine) in the form of a comprehensive tax increase package that promises to strip away one of the last tax breaks enjoyed by average Americans. To add insult to injury, he's proposing to increase federal gas taxes by an astronomical 272% for good measure. Of course he's doing this using the second favorite excuse of those who would raise your taxes, behind “it's for the children”, using instead, ”it's for the environment”.

Ostensibly Rep. Dingell is manufacturing this legalized robbery as an incentive for Americans to reduce that bane of human existence; carbon emissions. In reality it will burden the average taxpayer and the economy unnecessarily. A tax on fuel will hurt not only the driving public right in their wallet, but also every business that relys in any way on transportation. That covers just about every business. You know who will end up paying that increase in costs; again the average taxpayer, as businesses are forced to raise their prices.

Although many politicians are, on the surface about creating more jobs for their constituents, this increase will do quite the opposite. Every small business that will be forced to shoulder the burdensome gas tax will have to make a choice; where to cut back in order to pay the additional fuel cost. In many cases they will have to cut employment. Labor is the highest cost for almost every business, hence labor offers the largest potential for savings, as can be seen form the way many businesses rush to cut jobs at the first sign of an economic slowdown. This tax increase package will do it's best to create such a slowdown.

As many an environmentalist will attest to, economic activity invariably creates carbon emissions. What better way to decrease those emissions than to reduce economic activity? The problem is that the economic activity also creates the wealth required to develop technological solutions to environmental problems. In this case it will give the government a short term revenue increase. Long term, the huge gas tax increase will cause economic contraction, which in turn will cause reduced federal tax revenues. Fuel tax revenues will increase, even with the reduction in fuel use this tax will engender. Federal income tax revenues, both corporate and personal, will be hurt by this tax increase, however. If a rising tide raises all boats, the boats in this case will be doing their best Exxon Valdez impersonation.

I haven't even started in on that last tax refuge for the average American, the mortgage interest deduction. At a time when many Americans are finding it hard to meet rising mortgage payments, the esteemed Rep Dingell proposes to eliminate the deduction for the interest on those mortgages.Oh, those that can afford to will be able to buy their way out of it with that favorite refuge of wealthy environmentalists, the carbon offset credit.  Yes, he's proposing the phased reduction, to zero of tax deductions on mortgage interest, beginning on homes of 3,000 square feet. Of course Dingell is saying this is one way to reduce carbon emissions not only from the construction and operation of large homes, but also from the suburban sprawl that causes larger commute distances.

If he wants to reduce suburban sprawl, how long before he proposes a tax on large yards? After all, that contributes to sprawl and even causes increased carbon emissions due to greater mowing requirements. I'm legislation on that front won't be too far behind. Homes and yards, bad idea, stacks of condos with people living like chickens on a factory farm in the inner city, great idea in their view. Never mind that many small businesses, the source of most employment in this country, is located outside the inner city and never likely to relocate.

This is another attempt to grab the mortgage interest deduction, a tax deduction that some Federal lawmakers are loathe to allow Americans the privilege of keeping (much like their money). These legislators have been after the deduction for years, this time they're using the environmental angle to go after it. 3,000 square feet is hardly a castle, and I'm sure if this bill ever makes it to law, we'll see a flood of 2,999 sq foot homes and creative ways to circumvent the tax increase. Never underestimate the creativity of Americans, after all. Some of these may very well have the exact opposite effect that Mr. Dingell is trying to achieve. For example, there will be appearing many more detached garages with home offices and mother in law apartments above the garage, thereby removing them from the square footage of the home. Ironically, this will require larger lots, force homes farther apart, and create larger suburbs. Just another example of the more lawmakers meddle, the more they screw things up.

If you'd like to keep your mortgage interest tax deduction, and avoid the economic problems created by such a huge gas tax increase, write your legislator at once. You can find your congressional representative's contact information here: http://www.house.gov/writerep/

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October 12, 2007

- U.S. Federal Income Taxes – Should We Raise Them? Hell No!!!!! Take a Look

1040.jpgFor those of you out there that feel we are falling behind in tax revenues due to those infamous “tax cuts for the wealthy”, I can direct you to the figures for income tax revenues collected between 2003 and 2006, as thoughtfully provided by the Congressional Budget Office. Over 60% of the gains came from increases corporate income tax revenues.

Total Federal Tax Revenues Collected 2003 - $1.783T
Total Federal Tax Revenues Collected 2006 - $2.407T
 

As a percentage of the U.S. GDP, 2003 – 16.5%
As a percentage of the U.S. GDP, 2006 – 18.4%

I rest my case - We don’t need to raise tax rates.

So, to all you Democrats in Congress and the Senate pandering to the voters by caterwauling about those infernal tax cuts and how they have gutted our Federal Budget, kindly shut up. That’s not why we have a federal budget deficit. The majority of it isn’t due to the war on terror or our little excursion to Iraq, either, so be quiet.

To all you Republicans in our esteemed halls of the Federal government -Why the hell do you insist on spending money like frat boys at $2 Tuesday? Why don’t you try buying votes with your own money for a change, instead of using ours? If you would stop spending money growing government size and expanding government programs, and try improving government efficiency (??) and reducing freebies for every group you can find, we could actually use that money to pay off some national debt for a change.

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- What Are Mortgage Points – And Should You Pay Them?

Tampa_house_2.jpgIt’s something you see every time you’re in the bank and they have their daily mortgage rate posted in hopes they can turn you down for a mortgage. The bank will have a rate card posted with the interest rate for 30yr and 15yr fixed rate mortgages. In most cases the interest rate they’re quoting for either of these products has been changed, because instead of a straight interest rate, the lender has shown the effect of points on the mortgage. This will be shown by a notation saying something to the effect of “6.05% + 1 1 point” . What does this mean and how does it affect your mortgage?

First of all there are two kinds of mortgage points, origination points and discount points. In this case we’re referring to discount points. A discount point is just a way you can pay a fee at the beginning to lower the interest over the life of the loan. You are, as it’s referred to, “buying down” your mortgage interest rate. Origination points, on the other hand, are a fee charged by the lender to originate the loan. A single point (back to origination points) is a fee equal to 1% of your initial loan balance. So, if your mortgage was for $200,000, 1 point would be a $2,000 fee. You pay this fee up front, at the time the loan closes. This will then lower your mortgage interest rate over the entire term of the loan.

Should you pay discount points on your mortgage? It depends primarily on how long you’ll keep your mortgage loan for. Because the lower interest rate will save you money over the life of the loan, while the fee you pay is paid up front, it will take some time before you will make back the initial money you paid. That is known as the “breakeven point”. After you’ve passed the breakeven point you are actually saving money. Before the breakeven point you’re just repaying yourself the fee you paid the lender for the points when you got your loan.

That means that if you plan on staying in your home (and keeping that mortgage) for a length of time, usually over 10 years or so, points may be a good idea, while for shorter time period you’d be better served investing that money elsewhere. Most mortgage points calculator fail to take into account the value of the money you paid for the points as an investment, only as cash. If you do include the fact that you could easily be earning a return on that money that could possibly exceed the interest savings on the mortgage loan, it changes the equation yet again.

For example, if you have a $200,000 outstanding balance on your mortgage, and you paid 2 points for the interest rate to be reduced from 6.1% down to 5.7% you’ll save approximately $52 a month. How long, at $50 per month, will it take you to recoup your initial investment? Again, that will actually depend on the rate of return you could earn on the money you paid to buy down the mortgage had you invested it instead of using it to pay points.

In this case, if you paid 2 points for the buy down you’ll save about $620 in interest that first year. That $4,000 would have to be invested in a vehicle that returned 14.4% (compounded daily) to earn an equivalent amount. In this example, you’d reach the breakeven point for the loan with points in about 5 years and 8 months. If you held the property and the same mortgage for 15 years, at the end of the 15 years you’d have saved about $5,600, assuming you are in the 35% tax bracket and could have invested your money at 4%. If you earn 5% on your investment or savings, the breakeven period stretches out to 5 yr / 10 months.

I hope this helps you figure out the points / no points question. Have a great, Debt Free weekend. 

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October 11, 2007

- How to Avoid Estate Taxes and Fighting With Your Relatives – An Irrevocable Trust

IRS building.jpgIt’s bad enough when a dear relative dies. That last thing you need is for that to precipitate a lengthy legal battle over the estate. When the relative dies, their estate traditionally goes through some legal gyrations called probate, where the decedent’s debts, taxes and assets are reconciled and their remaining property is distributed according to the will. To put it bluntly; what a giant pain in the ass.

Recently, to eliminate probate and its attendant hassles, Joe Average has begun to place their assets into a legal state of being known as an irrevocable trust. This removes their ownership from the assets. It’s is irrevocable, meaning whoever set up the trust (the grantor) cannot change it. In addition, they are supposed to lose control of the assets to a trustee, who is appointed to administer the trust’s assets. Because they no longer have ownership or control of the assets and they cannot amend or change the trust, they are not liable for taxes owed on any income earned by the trust from operations or the sale of trust owned property.

If one just wants to sidestep the whole probate mess, a revocable trust may be used. The revocable trust hasn’t the estate tax protections of an irrevocable trust, however. Correctly setting up one of these vehicles is extremely complicated. If one of these trusts would benefit you, your relatives, or heirs, it’s essential you visit a good tax attorney so the trust can be properly constructed.

The tax avoidance implications of trusts have led many people to make at best exaggerated, and at worst outright fraudulent, claims about how they can get you out of paying any taxes using trusts. While trusts are excellent for income and estate tax avoidance if done correctly, an irrevocable trust may not meet your other financial and lifestyle needs. In the last 5 years, as trusts have gained popularity, many people have perpetrated some outlandish trust based tax avoidance schemes on the public, and have ended up in jail for their troubles.

First of all, no matter what Art Porth and Bill Drexler have said, you do, in fact, have to pay income taxes to Uncle Sam. All those interstates and F-22s have to get paid for somehow. Leave aside for a minute how much taxpayer dollars are wasted through either inefficiency or government largesse programs, you do have to pay taxes. You can minimize the amount you legally owe, but you can’t just tell the government to F’ off. That’ll land you in a heap o’ trouble. So, if you know that going in, you’ll be better prepared to see through those tax shelter scams you may run into.

The problem with some of these scams is that they’re recommended by individuals or firms that you know and trust. What is unfortunate for you is that if you get led into such a scam, you could still be liable for not only the back taxes, but penalties, fees and other legal consequences. In January of this year the U.S. 9th Circuit Court upheld an earlier decision by a tax court that taxpayers are responsible for investigating their own tax shelters, so look out.

Some large companies that have recently gotten busted for incorrect tax filings, shelters, or outright fraud include tax preparation firm Jackson Hewitt, law form Jenkins and Gilchrist, and accounting firm KPMG. Many celebrities have been busted for tax fraud or evasion too, such as (actor) Wesley Snipes, (comedian) Richard Pryor, (congressman and Vietnam War hero) Randall Cuningham, (congressman) James Traficant, and (Survivor #1 winner)Richard Hatch, so simply being famous is no defense either. Bottom line; if sounds like a shady way to avoid paying your taxes, it probably is.

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October 09, 2007

- An Investing Trend to Investigate – and Long Term Investing Success Means Profiting From Trends

douglas fir tree.jpgAs many an investor can attest to, the way to make consistently large returns with your investments is to jump onto a trend at the beginning, and then ride it all the way to the top. The trouble for many investors is finding these highly profitable trends. The next step in this profit plan is no easier for many; determining the best way to capitalize on the trends.

For example, you could have grabbed a piece of the profit in the home video market 25 years ago with any of several plays. You could have bought shares in a VCR producer, such as Sony or JVC. Another option would have been to invest in a company that made magnetic coatings for video tapes, or a company that made the tapes themselves and developed many of the technologies for them, such as TDK. A third way you could have made a profit from the expanding home video market would have been to buy some shares in one of the myriad of home video store chains that spring up during this period. Yet a forth way to profit from this trend would have been to start your own video store.

The success of beginning your own store would be very hard to predict, and would depend on many factors; the store's physical location, your marketing efforts, the demographics of the community where the store was located, your skill as a business person, etc. The success of other methods would be much easier to see in retrospect. We can just examine the various companies stock price history.

Let's look at Sony (SNE) and Matsushita (MC, parent company of Panasonic). From 1983 to 1988, the stocks performed very similarly. Sony began in mid 1993 at about $6.25, while Matsushita started at $7.30. By mid 1988, they had climbed to $21.86 (SNE) and $22.34 (MC). That would have been a great 5 year run for any investor. From there however, Sony dramatically outperformed the other company. By the mid 1990's (July 1995), Sony had a stock price of $26.64, wh8ile Matsushita was languishing back at $16.60. By early 2000, Sony had given investors stellar returns, landing at a high of over $156/ share. Panasonic's mom and dad, on the other hand, had not delivered on its' initial promise, reaching a stock price of just over $30. Note: Sony has now fallen back to around $50/share, from it's mid 2000 high.

How about a play on one of the big video store chains as a way of cashing in on the home video trend? There were a few possibilities if were to have chosen this direction. The largest of these is Blockbuster Video Inc (BBI). How would you have fared had you gone this route? In 1987 an investment group led by Waste Management founder Wayne Huizenga bought a controlling interest in Blockbuster from founders Dandy and David Cook for $18.6 million. Through a strategy of franchising, rapid acquisition and cross promotions with companies in complementary industries, such as Dominoes Pizza, Blockbuster Video grew from 4 stores and $7 million in sales in 1986, to 3,500 stores and various other entertainment holdings with a combined quarterly revenue of almost $700 million for Q1 1994! Quarterly rental revenue alone accounted for almost $400 million.

Unfortunately for the common investor, the only way to buy the company's rapidly appreciating stock came in 1994, when they were folded into communications giant Viacom. Blockbuster itself did not have their IPO until 1999, when the company's glory days were far behind it. As many investors would agree, now, on the eve of most content being delivered primarily over the Internet, is probably not the time to invest in a store that is so heavily invested in physical media and the infrastructure to support it.

What about a company that mad e many of the video tapes and developed some of their core technologies, TDK? This could have been a profitable move for investors, as TDK was also developing magnetic technologies for computer drives and optical media technology, both of which took off in the late 1980's. TDK rose from the low $30 range in 1987 to finally close at $147.50 by the time of the tech stock collapse in August of 2000. TDK now sits in the mid $80 range. After a fall back to the mid $30's in 2003, it has slowly been making a recovery, and actually would have been a nice buy in late 2002 or early 2003.

What about a trend you can cash in on now? Take a look around you. What trends do you notice that could deliver nice investment returns? There are some market conditions that bear watching. Number one – the new housing market is at its lowest levels in over a decade. The Canadian dollar is at its strongest point in who knows how long. Wood futures prices are at a decade low level. The Conference Board of Canada forecast earlier this year that Canadian wood products industry revenues would drop 25% by the end of the year, and that, combined with falling U.S. dollar will be driving some Canadian wood products producers out of business, further tightening supply.

A tight supply of a commodity that is experiencing very low prices, in the face of temporarily declining demand (the housing market will, at some point, make a comeback), points to a very strong market in the future, with rapid price appreciation. While I'm definitely not a prognosticator, and hold no wood futures myself, this seems like a trend that could be capitalized on. How could you do this? As with most trends, there are several plays on this market. You could just buy wood futures contracts, but many folks don't have the stomach or expertise for futures investing. Another angle to wring profit form this trend, if it develops, would be to invest in American wood products companies that are poised to make large profits on wood's rebound.

Do careful research and you'll find firms that own large stocks of