
Well, Hallelujah! President Bush has signed the new energy bill that finally made its way through the halls of congress to his desk. On the plus side, at least our boys and girls on the hill finally got something done, and we now at least have a start on a national energy policy. Weather it will be exactly what the nation needs, or a politically correct compromise remains to be seen. In any case, it will profoundly effect the life of every American in the coming 20 years and beyond, so you should at least be familiar with some of the finer points of the new energy laws.
Right off the top – say goodbye to the beloved incandescent light bulb. You know, those bulbs you can buy 4 for a dollar just about anywhere. They'll be phased out by 2020 so you can install those new fangled CFL bulbs. CFL bulbs have challenges of their own, including higher prices, tiny levels of the toxic metal mercury, problems dimming (some actually do dim now), slow time to full brightness, and harsher light. They do perform as advertised in the energy savings department however. You will be able to cut the electricity you now use for lighting by about 60%, provided you are changing from 100%, non dimmed incandescent lighting.
Some of the problems with CFL bulbs will be solved, in time. Some are able to be dimmed now for those who care about such things (and if you have dimmers installed, you should, lest you have to replace them with conventional switches), and prices are already much lower than they were only a couple of years ago. The levels of mercury, while extremely small per bulb, must be multiplied by the millions of CFL bulbs that will be pressed into service.
In addition, we should remember that these new bulbs must have new factories built to meet the burgeoning demand. New factories mean more efficient and environmentally friendly operation in most cases, but don't forget about the environmental damage caused by the actual construction of the new manufacturing facilities themselves.
Before you jump on the CFL bandwagon however, you should know this; once again, legislators failed to get it right. Instead of setting a lighting efficiency standard, and letting light bulb manufacturers workout the details, they banned a technology. Why is that a problem, you may ask? Because GE and others are now developing incandescent bulbs that are nearly 50% more efficient than current bulbs, and will be even more so within 5 years.
So, instead of using a newer, more efficient version of a proven technology that's relatively environmentally friendly, inexpensive, and compatible with all current light fixtures, we'll be forced to switch to a new technology that's more expensive and, while saving a tremendous amount of energy (estimates run as high as $18 billion annually that we'll be able to put elsewhere in the economy), don't work as well as current bulbs. Here is some information on these new high efficiency incandescent bulbs.
What about other provisions of the new energy policy that will affect you? The other place that Americans love to consume energy is their vehicles. We whine about high fuel costs, but still AutoData reports the sales of new Chevy Silverado Pickups, hardly the most fuel efficient of rides, was up over 30% in August and 7% in September 2007 over the same months in '06, despite high gas prices and a full size truck's thirst for unleaded. Some of that increase was purloined from Ford, as the Bleau Oval saw a nearly 10% slide in F series pickup sales year over year for August '07. None of that came from Toyota though, as sales of the new Toyota Tundra, a huge monster of a pickup with some versions producing almost 400hp, was up a whopping 69% in August over last year's figures.
Sales of most manufacturer's SUV's on the other hand, were down over the same months in 2006. Why does any of this even matter? Because it means that, given their free choice, many Americans will still drive large, rather inefficient vehicles. When they make choices like that, they must be stopped, for their own good, if for no other reason.
What impact will the new energy policy have on what you drive in the future? Well, it will get much better gas mileage. It will have to, because the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) requirements will be raised from their current 22mpg to 35mpg. That 35mpg figure will also affect trucks, whereas the current standard for trucks and cars is different. So you'll be saving a ton of money at the gas pump. You'd better save at the pump, because you'll be spending more money just about everywhere else, courtesy of the new energy legislation.
Why? Well the technology required to reach the 35mpg mandate will not come cheap, all apologies to inventors of those 80mpg carburetors we just know were derailed by the big oil companies. By some auto industry and energy analyst estimates, the average cost increase per vehicle will be well between $1,500 - $4,000, with some estimates reaching twice that figure! To paraphrase one industry exec “All the cheap, easy stuff's been done. Further fuel economy increases are going to be expensive.” So you will spend at the dealership what you save at the pump, and possibly a bit more.
Another provision of the new energy bill is that we'll be burning more renewable fuels, such as ethanol, in our high mileage vehicles. The law requires a 600% increase over current levels. Hooray for the farm lobby!! While I'm all for turning to locally produced fuels, renewable and otherwise, to wean us from our dangerous dependence on foreign oil, you should know that such independence will definitely come at a cost. First of all, these fuels contain less energy per unit volume than gasoline, so burning them brings about a 20% decrease in gas mileage. Because of this, the net effect of the CAFE increase is even greater, to maybe 36 – 37mpg, making it that much more difficult to attain.
There will be some interesting new hybrid and fuel cell vehicles, in addition to heretofore undeveloped motive technologies that will power our vehicles. It may spell the end of the traditional muscle car, but you should see what they can do with rare earth magnets and lithium ion batteries these days. The Tesla, an all electric roadster based on a Lotus chassis, can do a silent, 3.8 second 0-60 run.
You should also be prepared to cough up more money at your local supermarket. No, not to pay for more expensive light bulbs, but because the increased demand for ethanol as a motor fuel will raise the price of corn, and with it everything that contains corn, is fed corn, or competes with corn, such as wheat or barley (the price of whiskey and beer's goin' up!). It won't be a dramatic increase increase in most cases, but noticable. The good news is that a large portion of the new biofuel must be from other-than-corn sources, such as switch grass.
Hopefully one of the largest benefits to come from the new bill, other than the reduction in the demand for foreign oil, is the rise of new, hopefully locally developed and produced technologies to meet the demand for energy reduction. It could provide a dramatic stimulus for existing industries and the impetus for developing whole new ones. That may be just what America needs to keep us ahead of, or at least even with, the game in our new global marketplace.